Prorogation of Parliament would present ‘more risk than reward’ for Liberals — unless Trudeau steps down

OTTAWA — Liberals will be entering a new parliamentary session next week with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the helm of the party, still 20 points behind in the polls with no apparent plan to reverse course and with its deal with the NDP ripped to shreds.

And there is a possibility that the Liberals lose a seat in a Montreal stronghold, too.

In those circumstances, a prorogation — which would effectively press the pause button on the work of Parliament to force an agenda reset — could be tempting. But political insiders agree that it is unlikely that it will happen unless Liberals want an early election.

Kate Harrison, vice chair at Summa Strategies and a Conservative political analyst, said the idea of proroguing Parliament could bring “more risk than reward” for the Liberals.

“Yes, it could provide an opportunity to clear the decks, come back with a very focused legislative agenda and a speech from the throne that really crystallizes what the Liberals want to govern on and, frankly, want to run on in the next election,” said Harrison.

“It’s just a big risk for them to assume that (Parliament) won’t fall at that moment in time and see us go to the polls early, and I don’t think that they’re prepared for that,” she said, noting that the party’s national campaign director is stepping down at the end of September.

Liberals have not shied away from prorogation when faced with difficulties in the past.

In 2020, they suspended Parliament’s work for just over a month as the government was reeling from the WE Charity controversy. At the time, Trudeau said he wanted to “build back better” after the pandemic and the NDP voted to keep the government in power during the confidence vote.

Mélanie Richer, former director of communications for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, said she understands the Liberals’ need for a reset in 2024, but said the risk is too great to see bills such as the Pharmacare Act, in the final stages at the Senate, die on the order paper.

A prorogation brings an end to all proceedings before Parliament, which means bills that have not received royal assent are terminated and must be reintroduced in a new session as if they never existed.

The pharmacare legislation, which was part of the Liberals’ supply-and-confidence agreement with the NDP, would provide immediate coverage for contraceptives and diabetes medication while paving the way for a universal drug program in Canada.

“With a year left, if they were to prorogue, then you’re losing all your progress on all the things that you’ve already done,” said Richer, now a principal at Earnscliffe Strategies.

“If they were to do that, that would be big sign to the NDP that they were right to walk from the deal, because the government really didn’t care about getting stuff done for people.”

Andrew Perez, principal at Perez Strategies and Liberal strategist, said he can only think of one instance in which a prorogation would be a good idea: if Trudeau resigns.

Perez suggested Trudeau could prorogue Parliament for a few months, announce his resignation and remain as prime minister while his party conducts an expedited leadership race. The new leader could then be sworn in as prime minister and reconvene Parliament.

It would be similar to former Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty’s surprise move in 2012, when he announced he was not only stepping down as Liberal leader but also proroguing the provincial legislature. Kathleen Wynne went on to become the leader and premier.

“I think that it would be a Hail Mary pass at this juncture to help facilitate a leadership race. I think that’s the only context in which I think it would be a good idea,” said Perez.

“I’m not suggesting that this is going to solve the party’s problems, but … given last week’s events, the possibility for the opening for a leadership race is now more problematic. The runway is narrower,” said Perez, adding that prorogation would be Trudeau’s “last tool.”

Harrison said that the idea of proroguing Parliament at a moment of political instability, with the upcoming U.S. election and the uncertainty and negativity that Canadians have around the direction of their country, would leave a sour taste in lots of people’s mouths.

“To drop the mic and leave via prorogation, I think, would torpedo any remaining goodwill that people have towards the Liberals. And we would have really serious challenges to deal with as a country if we had no federal government in place at a moment like this.”

Until now, Trudeau has always said he would remain leader of his party. He also seemingly crushed the idea of proroguing Parliament when he told reporters on Wednesday he “can’t wait” to go up against Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre this fall.

National Post [email protected]

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